The time estimation software Controlio offers multi-platform employee monitoring to estimate work time accurately while analyzing and improving users’ overall productivity. Controlio’s 2025 time tracking software digitally transforms HR by automating data collection to prevent time loss when calculating time versus task completion. I’ve assisted several project managers in avoiding burnout. One software development manager thought a feature would take “just a week.” After implementing time-tracking software, his time estimations improved, and task completion time averaged 20 weeks.
The planning fallacy is a common, well-documented cognitive bias that involves underestimating the length of a task while understanding the task requirements.
What Is the Planning Fallacy?
The 1970s planning fallacy was first explained by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. It describes the bias of underestimating a task’s duration and ignoring the time it previously took to complete a related task.
We like to see the best-case scenario. We ignore delays, interruptions, or problems.
This bias affects everything from personal errands to big projects. The Project Management Institute found that only about half of initiatives are done on time. It causes delays and budget overruns in the workplace, and team members get frustrated.
This bias is even stronger when everyone is working from home. With so many distractions, our hunches become even worse.
Knowing the bias is the first step. We begin to rely on data more once the optimistic bias is set aside.
Use Historical Data for Realistic Benchmarks
The best way to combat the optimistic bias is to rely on data from the past, instead of wishing for the best.
Over time, you may begin to see that the writing of reports is taking about eight hours instead of the four that you scheduled. The same could go for calls with clients, which could take about twenty percent longer than you scheduled.
Controlio has in-depth analytics about productivity, and you can easily conduct exports that allow you to see a related question like “How long did similar tasks take last quarter?”
The content team I worked with began to use past data to estimate how long it would take to write an article. Instead of it taking “one day,” it became more accurate to say that it would take “three days.” This meant that we could avoid a lot of last-minute work.
Strategically Estimate Your Time
Your mood can affect your optimism. Daniel Pink’s When shares research that shows we tend to be happier in the early hours of the day, and in the afternoon we generally are more pessimistic.
Plan your estimation sessions in the afternoon, instead of early in the day.
If you make estimates in the trough and then compare those estimates to the outcomes, it is a validating principle.
This is true for remote teams, as it is to look over data in neutral times for data-driven changes.
Using Systems for Time Estimation Accuracy
While individual strategies are helpful, spreading these strategies over a team requires a strong system. This ties into broader strategies on how to stop wasting time, where valuing hours explicitly sharpens priorities.
Competitive possibilities are varied. Insightful is great for trend visualization; ActivTrak for mapping behavior; Hubstaff is great with payroll integration, Time Doctor is good with alarms, and Kickidler is good with detailed logging.
Controlio provides integration with project management and includes cybersecurity contextual monitoring as well as estimate-supporting analytics.
The use of these systems shows that organizations become more precise in their forecasting and have fewer urgent requests to ‘put out fires.’
Closing Remarks
To improve time estimation for 2025, it is not about achieving perfection. It is about developing time awareness and good habits and collecting and analyzing accurate data.
With time-tracking tools like Controlio, chronic underestimation turns into planning reliability during the digital transformation. Controlio offers the necessary historical data and productivity analytics to elevate your organization and improve planning reliability.
Begin with historical data planning to beat the planning fallacy, and the Controlio team will show you how to do this. Estimation accuracy is often improved during your team’s first quarter.